Three Thursdays ago, thanks to our wonderful host, Gillian Sagansky, we hosted 30 people for a conversation about 2024 in the Upper East Side of Manhattan. The next meeting is on Tuesday 5th in Brooklyn.
For this meeting, the setting was beautiful. The fire was roaring. The food and wine were flowing freely. People were as eclectic as they were eccentric, as enthused as they were intrigued.
This meeting was focused on a more opaque question than usual: How do you think about 2024?
Two distinctive themes emerged organically from a discourse on 2024: War and Elections
War
War was mentioned first by our host, Gillian, who spent time in Ukraine with the NGO Help 99. War was top of mind for her and for many others in the room because 32 countries are at war today (incl. civil wars). Russia, Israel, Palestine, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Somalia, Libya, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Myanmar, Colombia, and Mali to name but a few…
“War is what happens when language fails.”
― Margaret Atwood
Well said, Margaret!
The language in the room that followed Gillian’s thoughts mirrored the language often seen in the news today. Essentially, we are living through a period of acute fragility that has the potential to explode into World War Three.
A World War is an international conflict that involves most or all of the world's major powers. The genuine fear in the meeting for the prospect of World War Three has led me to think deeply about the likelihood of World War Three happening in 2024.
So let’s think about it alone, together.
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it is about the future” Niels Bohr’s (1885-1962)
A survey conducted by the American Psychological Association soon after Russia invaded Ukraine found that nearly 7 in 10 Americans feared “that we are at the beginning stages of World War III.” Wow, that’s a lot of people, but, are they right?
A quick look at Google search trends shows the crowd is definitely concerned about the possibility of World War Three. But, the crowd is rarely right, right?
Lots of people thinking something or Googling something certainly does not mean it will happen, particularly when we are talking about World War Three.
So, let’s look at a more relevant metric: Deaths from state-based conflicts. The more people dying in state-based conflicts, the closer we probably are to World War Three.
Good news
Since the Second World War, the world has lived through a remarkable time of unprecedented global peace. Fewer people have died in conflicts in recent decades than in most of the 20th century. Needless to say, every death is still a tragedy of epic proportion.
We cannot be confident that the decline in conflict deaths will continue though. First, there have been more deaths in the last decade than in the previous decades. Second, since 2022 there has been a spike in deaths, primarily due to the war in Ukraine and in Israel/Palestine.
The progress since the past definitely demands pause for applause but recent events mean we cannot assume the past will predict the future. The salient question that emerged from the meeting remains: Will World War Three happen in 2024?
Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.
Albert Einstein
What are the reasons for World War Three being unlikely?
In 2015, a journalist named John Aziz wrote, “The probability of a World War is the lowest it has been since the dawn of modernity.” He then gave three reasons why World War III will almost certainly never happen.
1. Nuclear Weapons
The atomic bomb created a universal “fear of mutually assured destruction,” which acted as an effective deterrent to World War. Bombs = peace?
2. Globalization
Global trade makes the world increasingly interconnected, so there is less incentive to go to War. More trade = more peace.
3. Democracy
Democracy is spreading, and democracies aren't going to war with each other. More democracy = more peace.
BIG IDEA
It is very interesting that the three reasons war was practically impossible in 2015 (nuclear weapons, globalisation and democracy) are now the reasons people are saying war is possible or even probable in 2024!
In 2015, many including John Aziz said we had enough nuclear weapons to serve as a deterrent and keep us safe, but not too many to cause alarm. Now, we are being told “the situation is far more perilous than it was in 1914 and 1939 because the major powers all have nuclear weapons.” Which one is it?
In 2015, the world was becoming more globalised and interconnected, and therefore, safer. Now, we are being told about the end of globalization. Which one is it?
In 2015, democracy was spreading and on the cusp of reaching all-time highs. Now, we are being told the of democracy is nigh and one person could destroy it. Which one is it?
Either way, this is a big shift, a big 180, in less than a decade!
Do the facts justify the 180? What has changed with nuclear weapons, globalizaton and democracy in the last 9 years? Have the number of nuclear weapons reached Cold War levels? Has globalisation and/or democracy fallen off a cliff?
Has enough happened in the arena of nuclear weapons, globalisation and democracy for Donald Trump to be right? He says, “we are on the brink of World War Three.” Let’s look at the facts…
“There’s no room for facts when our minds are occupied by fear.”
― Hans Rosling
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